High-tech upheaval ahead: Gartner
Analysts project that software will be free by 2010, that hardware will be rented, that telecoms will disappear and that IT support will be based in India.
Jun 09, 2005
A new report from Gartner, entitled "Gartner's Positions on the Five Hottest IT Topics and Trends in 2005," forecasts that companies will move away from packaged software, choosing to rent software as a service instead. By 2006, more than 60 percent of the USD527 billion market for IT professional services will be based on web services standards and technology. It also forecast that the distinction between software integrators and vendors will blur, as packaged applications are broken apart and delivered as business services.
The trends will be driven in part by the adoption of open-source software, whose users don't pay for licenses, but pay instead for the services need to implement the software. The report also forecasts that by 2008, 95 percent of Global 2000 organisations will have formal open-source acquisition and management strategies and that open-source applications will directly compete with closed-source products in every software infrastructure market.
"These five trends represent inevitable and irrevocable shifts in the information technology landscape," said David W. Cearley, research vice-president at Gartner, who said that decision-makers need to assess the utility and business case for these technologies in their business.
The report also identified a trend towards utility computing, whereby computing resources are rented from external providers. It forecast that by 2010 large companies typically will fulfil 25 percent of their requirements from shared, rather than dedicated, sources, and that 30 percent of their software will be delivered by external pay-as-you-go providers.
The report predicts that VoIP will cause the "greatest upheaval in the telecommunications industry since its founding." By 2010, 40 percent of companies will have integrated their entire voice and data networks into a single network and more than 95 percent of large and mid-size companies will have at least started the process.
By 2009, more than half of the top network service providers will have merged or will have been acquired. The cost of voice and data services will have fallen by more than 10 percent per annum, but traffic growth of between 30 and 60 percent means that network budgets will grow by between 5 and 10 percent per annum.
Finally the report forecasts that global outsourcing will continue to grow and that by 2015, 30 percent of traditional professional IT services jobs will be delivered by people based in emerging markets. India will continue to play a significant role, but by 2008, China, Russia and Brazil will also be important players in this market.
The trends will be driven in part by the adoption of open-source software, whose users don't pay for licenses, but pay instead for the services need to implement the software. The report also forecasts that by 2008, 95 percent of Global 2000 organisations will have formal open-source acquisition and management strategies and that open-source applications will directly compete with closed-source products in every software infrastructure market.
"These five trends represent inevitable and irrevocable shifts in the information technology landscape," said David W. Cearley, research vice-president at Gartner, who said that decision-makers need to assess the utility and business case for these technologies in their business.
The report also identified a trend towards utility computing, whereby computing resources are rented from external providers. It forecast that by 2010 large companies typically will fulfil 25 percent of their requirements from shared, rather than dedicated, sources, and that 30 percent of their software will be delivered by external pay-as-you-go providers.
The report predicts that VoIP will cause the "greatest upheaval in the telecommunications industry since its founding." By 2010, 40 percent of companies will have integrated their entire voice and data networks into a single network and more than 95 percent of large and mid-size companies will have at least started the process.
By 2009, more than half of the top network service providers will have merged or will have been acquired. The cost of voice and data services will have fallen by more than 10 percent per annum, but traffic growth of between 30 and 60 percent means that network budgets will grow by between 5 and 10 percent per annum.
Finally the report forecasts that global outsourcing will continue to grow and that by 2015, 30 percent of traditional professional IT services jobs will be delivered by people based in emerging markets. India will continue to play a significant role, but by 2008, China, Russia and Brazil will also be important players in this market.